Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction
Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction
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DOI：
10.1007/s00267-014-0439-z
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Berry, Leonard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aumen, Nicholas G.;Havens, Karl E.;Berry, Leonard
佛罗里达的大沼泽地从奥兰多附近的基西米河源头延伸到佛罗里达湾。在自然条件下，在这个平坦的景观，水缓慢地流向下游广泛，浅片状流。现在的生态系统明显不同，由于营养物污染和运河、堤坝以及为防洪和供水而设计的水控制结构的建设而改变。这些变化导致生态系统的空间范围减少了50%，其余部分的生态功能发生了重大变化。世界上最大的恢复计划之一正在进行中，通过数十亿美元的大沼泽地综合恢复计划，恢复大沼泽地的一些历史水文和生态功能。该计划于2000年定稿，没有明确考虑气候变化的影响，但今天我们意识到，海平面上升和未来降雨量（RF），温度和蒸散量（ET）的变化可能会产生系统范围的影响。本系列论文描述了一个研讨会的结果，该研讨会使用区域水文模型来模拟2060年的水文预测，气候变化包括温度升高，ET和海平面上升，以及RF的增加或减少。在生态系统的各个领域具有专门知识的生态学家评估了水文输出，得出了关于潜在生态系统响应的结论，并确定了响应预测具有高度不确定性的研究需求。资源管理人员参加了研讨会，他们介绍了在气候变化背景下如何利用新信息指导大沼泽地恢复方面的经验教训。
Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.