Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes
Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes
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DOI：
10.1111/jofi.12819
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Zafar, Basit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuchler, Theresa;Zafar, Basit
使用新的调查数据，我们的文件，个人推断，从最近的个人经验时，形成对总体经济成果的预期。近期当地经历的房价变动影响了对未来美国房价变动的预期，经历的房价波动越大，受访者报告的美国房价变动预期分布越广。当我们利用就业状况的个体内变化时，我们发现，亲身经历失业的个人对未来全国范围内的失业变得更加悲观。外推的程度与个人经历的信息量无关，与风险调整不一致，并且对于不太复杂的个体更为明显。
Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within-individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.