of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures During the Late Sixteenth-Century North American Megadrought
of Geophysical Research : Atmospheres Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures During the Late Sixteenth-Century North American Megadrought
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地球物理研究:十六世纪末北美特大干旱期间热带太平洋海面温度的寒冷
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Coats
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作者：
Benjamin I. Cook;A. P. Williams;J. Smerdon;Jonathan G. Palmer;Edward R. Cook;D. Stahle;S. Coats
16 世纪末的北美特大干旱以其持续性、范围、强度以及在中世纪气候异常期间特大干旱活动主要间隔之后的发生而引人注目。热带太平洋海面温度 (SST) 的强迫被认为是特大干旱的可能驱动因素，我们利用墨西哥和澳大利亚的两个新的 600 年水文气候现场重建研究了 16 世纪末事件的这一假设。这些重建所代表的区域与热带太平洋海温有很强的遥相关性，每个区域的主导主成分解释了约 40% 的当地水文气候变化，并与北方冬季（12 月 - 1 月 - 2 月）NINO 3.4 指数显着相关。使用这两个主成分作为预测因子，我们巧妙地重建了 12 月-1 月-2 月 NINO 3.4 指数。重建结果表明，16 世纪末的特大干旱很可能发生在过去 600 年热带太平洋海温异常最持久和最强烈的时期之一（公元 1566 年至 1590 年；NINO 中值 3.4 = -0.79 K）。这个异常寒冷的时期恰逢澳大利亚卡蒂坦达-艾尔湖的一次重大充水事件，水文气候响应与重建的海表温度状态动态一致。这些结果提供了新的证据，表明热带太平洋强迫是 16 世纪末北美西南部和墨西哥大干旱的重要驱动因素，凸显了气候系统内可能发生的大幅自然变率。
The late 16th-century North American megadrought was notable for its persistence, extent, intensity, and occurrence after the main interval of megadrought activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Forcing from sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific is considered a possible driver of megadroughts, and we investigate this hypothesis for the late 16th-century event using two new 600-year long hydroclimate field reconstructions from Mexico and Australia. Areas represented by these reconstructions have strong teleconnections to tropical Pacific SSTs, evidenced by the leading principal component in each region explaining ∼40% of local hydroclimate variability and correlating significantly with the boreal winter (December-January-February) NINO 3.4 index. Using these two principal components as predictors, we develop a skillful reconstruction of the December-January-February NINO 3.4 index. The reconstruction reveals that the late 16th-century megadrought likely occurred during one of the most persistent and intense periods of cold tropical Pacific SST anomalies of the last 600 years (1566–1590 C.E.; median NINO 3.4 = −0.79 K). This anomalously cold period coincided with a major filling episode for Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre in Australia, a hydroclimate response dynamically consistent with the reconstructed SST state. These results offer new evidence that tropical Pacific forcing was an important driver of the late 16th-century North American megadrought over the Southwest and Mexico, highlighting the large amplitude of natural variability that can occur within the climate system.