Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5
Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5
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亚太涛动与大尺度大气环流和东亚降雨的当前和未来联系：CMIP5 的结果
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3579-z
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Shi Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou Botao;Xu Ying;Shi Ying
夏季亚太涛动（APO）是亚太地区气候变率的主要模态之一，对大尺度大气环流和气候的变化有着显著的影响。本研究评估了耦合模式相互比较项目第五阶段（CMIP 5）中30个最先进的气候模式在模拟其与亚太地区大气环流和东亚降水关系方面的能力。此外，还研究了RCP8.5情景下它们的未来连接。评价结果表明，30个气候模式中有5个能较好地综合反映与APO相关的特征，包括对流层上层南亚高压（SAH）加强、北太平洋槽（NPT）加深和东亚急流（EAJ）北移;亚洲低压和北太平洋副热带高压加强，西太平洋副热带高压北移在对流层低层，和减少东亚夏季降水（EASR）的正APO相位。根据五个CMIP 5模型的模拟结果，预测在21世纪下半叶，APO与SAH、NPT、AL和NPSH的动态联系将保持不变。然而，它与EASR的联系往往显着减少。这种减少可能是由于减弱了APO与EAJ和WPSH的纬向位移的联系，作为对变暖情景的响应。
The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models’ simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
P. Zhao;Song Yang;R. Wu;Z. Wen;Junming Chen;Huijun Wang
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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