Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China
Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China
复制标题
中国化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产的碳排放量减少估算
DOI：
10.1038/nature14677
复制
发表时间：
2015-08-20
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
He, Kebin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Zhu;Guan, Dabo;He, Kebin
2010年至2012年间，全球化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产所产生的碳排放增长中，近四分之三发生在中国（1，2）。然而，对中国排放量的估计仍然存在很大的不确定性; 2008年中国化石燃料碳排放总量的清单相差0.3亿吨碳，即15%（1，3 -5）。这种不确定性的主要来源是对能源消耗和排放因素的相互矛盾的估计，后者是不确定的，因为很少有实际测量代表中国燃料的组合。在此，我们使用最新和统一的能源消耗和熟料生产数据以及两套新的全面的中国煤炭排放系数来重新评估中国的碳排放。我们发现，2000-2012年中国能源消费总量比中国国家统计数据高出10%（6），中国煤炭排放因子平均比政府间气候变化专门委员会建议的默认值低40%（7），中国水泥生产的排放量比最近的估计少45%（1，4）。总之，我们对2013年中国化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产的二氧化碳排放量的修订估计为2.49亿吨碳（2个标准差= +/-7.3%），比其他主要清单报告的排放量低14%（1，4，8）。在2000年至2013年的整个时期内，我们的修订估计比之前对中国累计碳排放量的估计少了2.9亿吨碳（1，4）。我们的研究结果表明，对中国2000-2013年排放量的高估可能大于中国1990-2007年估计的森林碳汇总量（2.66千兆吨碳）（9）或中国2000-2009年陆地碳汇（2.6千兆吨碳）（10）。
Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China(1,2). Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent(1,3-5). The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics(6), that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(7), and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates(1,4). Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = +/-7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories(1,4,8). Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions(1,4). Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon)(9) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon)(10).