Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change
Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change
复制标题
大西洋经向翻转环流对气候变化响应的专家判断
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-007-9246-3
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
David William Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Zickfeld;A. Levermann;M. G. Morgan;T. Kuhlbrodt;S. Rahmstorf;David William Keith
我们介绍了对12位领先气候科学家的详细采访的结果，讨论了全球气候变化对大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）可能产生的影响。该启发旨在审查气候研究界对决定AMOC当前强度的物理过程、其在气候变化中的未来演变以及潜在AMOC变化的后果的一系列意见。专家们对决定AMOC目前强度的物理过程以及决定其在气候变化下未来演变的强迫因素给予不同的相对重要性。许多被认为重要的过程和因素被评估为知之甚少，在最先进的气候模型中没有得到充分的体现。所有专家都预计，在温室气体浓度增加的情况下，AMOC会减弱。两位专家预计，在4×CO2情景下，AMOC的永久崩溃是最有可能的反应。假设2100年全球平均气温上升4 K，八位专家评估触发AMOC崩溃的可能性与零有很大不同，其中三位大于40%。AMOC减少的后果包括北大西洋地区温度、降水分布和海平面的强烈变化。预计，一个适当设计的研究计划，重点是长期观测和耦合气候模拟，将有助于大大减少未来演变的AMOC的不确定性。
We present results from detailed interviews with 12 leading climate scientists about the possible effects of global climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The elicitation sought to examine the range of opinions within the climatic research community about the physical processes that determine the current strength of the AMOC, its future evolution in a changing climate and the consequences of potential AMOC changes. Experts assign different relative importance to physical processes which determine the present-day strength of the AMOC as well as to forcing factors which determine its future evolution under climate change. Many processes and factors deemed important are assessed as poorly known and insufficiently represented in state-of-the-art climate models. All experts anticipate a weakening of the AMOC under scenarios of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. Two experts expect a permanent collapse of the AMOC as the most likely response under a 4×CO2 scenario. Assuming a global mean temperature increase in the year 2100 of 4 K, eight experts assess the probability of triggering an AMOC collapse as significantly different from zero, three of them as larger than 40%. Elicited consequences of AMOC reduction include strong changes in temperature, precipitation distribution and sea level in the North Atlantic area. It is expected that an appropriately designed research program, with emphasis on long-term observations and coupled climate modeling, would contribute to substantially reduce uncertainty about the future evolution of the AMOC.