Inhomogeneous radiative forcing of homogeneous greenhouse gases
Inhomogeneous radiative forcing of homogeneous greenhouse gases
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DOI：
10.1002/2015jd024569
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发表时间：
2016-03-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Xia, Yan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Yi;Tan, Xiaoxiao;Xia, Yan
均匀温室气体（HGG）的辐射强迫可能是非常不均匀的，因为强迫取决于其他大气和地面变量。在CO_2加倍的情况下，大气顶部的月平均瞬时强迫在时间和地理上都是从正值到负值变化的，其变化范围（-2.5-5.1Wm（-2））是全球平均值（2.3Wm（-2））的3倍多。大气柱垂直温度变化（温度直减率）被认为是解释强迫变化的最佳单一预测因子。此外，云和水汽的掩蔽效应也有助于强迫的不均匀性。构造了一个回归模型，预测地球物理变量的强迫。该模型可以解释90%以上的强迫方差。应用该模式分析了气候模式相互比较项目第五阶段模式的强迫变化，发现模式气候学引起的CO2强迫的模式间差异导致了它们对向极能量输送的预测变化存在相当大的差异。
Radiative forcing of a homogeneous greenhouse gas (HGG) can be very inhomogeneous because the forcing is dependent on other atmospheric and surface variables. In the case of doubling CO2, the monthly mean instantaneous forcing at the top of the atmosphere is found to vary geographically and temporally from positive to negative values, with the range (-2.5-5.1Wm(-2)) being more than 3 times the magnitude of the global mean value (2.3Wm(-2)). The vertical temperature change across the atmospheric column (temperature lapse rate) is found to be the best single predictor for explaining forcing variation. In addition, the masking effects of clouds and water vapor also contribute to forcing inhomogeneity. A regression model that predicts forcing from geophysical variables is constructed. This model can explain more than 90% of the variance of the forcing. Applying this model to analyzing the forcing variation in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models, we find that intermodel discrepancy in CO2 forcing caused by model climatology leads to considerable discrepancy in their projected change in poleward energy transport.