Food self-sufficiency and natural hazards in China
Food self-sufficiency and natural hazards in China
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DOI：
10.1007/s12571-011-0114-7
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发表时间：
2011-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
E. Simelton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Simelton
随着国内外食品和饲料需求的增加，中国在全球粮食市场中的作用预计将扩大。自然灾害造成的不可预见的农作物歉收也可能起到一定作用。本文利用1995年至2008年期间中国31个省份的农业产量（水稻、小麦、玉米、块茎、大豆和其他谷物）和自然灾害数据（洪水和干旱）来检验中国国内收成的自给自足程度。它旨在回答三个问题：（1）中国目前的粮食库存规模是否足以缓冲季节性歉收？ （2）在单个省份的基础上，粮食作物的多样性是否可以降低自然灾害造成的生产冲击风险？ (3) 哪些地区受自然灾害影响的可能性较小，因此应划出农用地，以实现未来粮食自给自足的目标？结果显示，如果1995年至2008年期间所有省份最严重的农作物歉收发生在同一年，即“理论上的最坏情况”，中国的谷物收成可能会减少1.4亿吨。因此，目前120-2亿吨的粮食库存足以缓冲中国的谷物供应，应对一年的生产问题。 13年期间粮食作物多样性较高的省份受洪水影响较小，受干旱影响较大。粮食自给率在适度多样化的省份中最高。受自然灾害影响相对较小的重点农业区包括华北平原部分地区。此外，中国开始越来越依赖干旱多发的东北地区的三个省份来实现粮食自给自足。政策需要使各种规模的农场能够适应变化并促进粮食自给自足。
China’s role in the global grain market is expected to expand with increasing demand for food and feed, both within and outside the country. Unforeseen crop failures caused by natural hazards might also be instrumental. This paper uses agricultural production (rice, wheat, maize, tubers, soybeans, and other grains) and natural disaster data (floods and droughts) for 31 provinces in China for the period 1995–2008 to examine the self-sufficiency of China’s domestic harvests. It aims to answer three questions: (1) Is the size of China’s current grain stock adequate as a buffer against seasonal crop failures of the same magnitude as in the past? (2) On a single province basis, does a diversity of grain crops reduce the risk of production shocks due to natural hazards? (3) Which regions are less likely to be affected by natural hazards and should therefore be set aside as agricultural land in order to meet future food self-sufficiency targets? The results show that if the worst crop failures of all provinces between 1995 and 2008 were to happen in the same year, a “theoretical worst-case scenario”, China’s cereal harvest might drop by 140 million tonnes. Therefore, their current grain stock of 120–200 million tonnes is sufficient to buffer China’s cereal supplies against 1 year of production problems. Provinces with a high degree of grain crop diversity over the 13-year period were less affected by floods and more affected by droughts. Food self-sufficiency was the highest in moderately diverse provinces. Key agricultural regions relatively less affected by natural hazards included parts of the North China Plain. In addition, China began to increasingly depend on three provinces in the drought-prone north-east region for attaining grain self-sufficiency. Policies need to enable farms of all sizes to adapt to change and to contribute to food self-sufficiency.