Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model
Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model
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DOI：
10.1007/s10729-014-9310-2
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发表时间：
2015-09-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Akgunduz, Ali
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karimi, Elnaz;Schmitt, Ketra;Akgunduz, Ali
流行病学文献中明确指出，个人行为对传染病的传播有重大影响。基于主体的模型越来越被认为是下一代流行病学模型。在这项研究中，我们使用基于代理的模型的能力，通过检查疫苗接种和社会距离的相对重要性，控制传染病传播的两种常见措施，相对于季节性流感，将行为纳入模拟。我们使用健康信念模型研究的结果对健康行为进行了建模，该研究的重点是流感。我们考虑了一个控制组和一个治疗组，以探讨教育对人们健康相关行为模式的影响。对照组根据学生对流感及其干预措施的一般知识反映了学生的行为模式，而治疗组则说明了个人接受医疗保健专家教育后的行为变化水平。这项研究的结果表明，自我发起的行为是成功的，在高接触率的位置，如大学控制疫情。自发行为导致人群发病率下降17%，病例峰值减少25%。该模拟还提供了HBM理论为基础的教育计划的效果，以提高目标干预措施的应用率（疫苗接种率为22%，社交距离为41%），从而控制疫情。
It is well established in the epidemiological literature that individual behaviors have a significant effect on the spread of infectious diseases. Agent-based models are increasingly being recognized as the next generation of epidemiological models. In this research, we use the ability of agent-based models to incorporate behavior into simulations by examining the relative importance of vaccination and social distancing, two common measures for controlling the spread of infectious diseases, with respect to seasonal influenza. We modeled health behaviour using the result of a Health Belief Model study focused on influenza. We considered a control and a treatment group to explore the effect of education on people's health-related behaviors patterns. The control group reflects the behavioral patterns of students based on their general knowledge of influenza and its interventions while the treatment group illustrates the level of behavioral changes after individuals have been educated by a health care expert. The results of this study indicate that self-initiated behaviors are successful in controlling an outbreak in a high contact rate location such as a university. Self-initiated behaviors resulted in a population attack rate decrease of 17 % and a 25 % reduction in the peak number of cases. The simulation also provides significant evidence for the effect of an HBM theory-based educational program to increase the rate of applying the target interventions (vaccination by 22 % percent and social distancing by 41 %) and consequently to control the outbreak.