Decomposition of Pearl River Delta's Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI Method
Decomposition of Pearl River Delta's Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI Method
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
Wu Ren-hai
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作者：
Wu Ren-hai
如何控制区域碳排放的增长是世界各国关注的焦点，识别影响能源碳足迹的因素并找出关键因素对碳排放的控制和削减具有重要意义。基于IPCC碳排放因子，计算了珠江三角洲1998 - 2009年的能源碳足迹，并基于卡亚方程，采用LMDI方法对珠江三角洲能源碳足迹的影响因素进行分解，发现珠江三角洲能源碳足迹从1998年的11272万t上升到2009年的24905万t，经济因素对能源碳足迹的影响最大，而经济因素对能源碳足迹的影响最大碳足迹的增长，而经济效应受经济规模的影响，国家政策和国际金融环境的影响，人口增长是能源碳足迹增长的促进因素，能源效率是抑制碳足迹增长的关键因素，能源结构在研究期内变化不大，影响不显著。发展低能耗、高效率的能源是影响能源碳足迹增长的主要因素。发展低碳产业和提高能源利用效率是减少珠三角碳足迹的主要途径，同时要控制经济规模和人口规模。
How to control the growth of regional carbon emissions is the focus of the world.It is significant for carbon emissions control and reduction to identify the factors affecting energy carbon footprint and find out the key factor.Based on IPCC carbon emission factors,the energy carbon footprint of Pearl River Delta from 1998 to 2009 was calculated.Based on Kaya equation,the factors of energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta were decomposed with LMDI method.It was found that the energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta has risen from 112.72 million tons in 1998 to 249.05 million tons in 2009.Economic factor was the most important for the growth of carbon footprint,while economic effect was affected by economic scale,national policy and international financial environment.Population growth acted as a promoting factor for the energy carbon footprint.Energy efficiency was the key factor to inhibit the growth of carbon footprint.The effect of energy structure was insignificant due to its slight changes during the research period.Developing low-carbon industry and improving energy efficiency would be the primary means to reduce carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta,and to control the economy scale and population size would also be required.