THE EFFECTS OF EXPLAINING HYPOTHETICAL FUTURE EVENTS - FROM POSSIBILITY TO PROBABILITY TO ACTUALITY AND BEYOND
THE EFFECTS OF EXPLAINING HYPOTHETICAL FUTURE EVENTS - FROM POSSIBILITY TO PROBABILITY TO ACTUALITY AND BEYOND
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DOI：
10.1016/0022-1031(81)90011-1
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发表时间：
1981-01-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
STOCK, CB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
SHERMAN, SJ;SKOV, RB;STOCK, CB
过去的研究已经证明了解释假设事件对这些事件将发生的概率的估计的影响。两个实验考察了在该情景和相关情景下，解释自己的假设结果对实际行为的影响。受试者首先解释即将到来的字谜任务的假设成功或失败。然后，他们要么明确表示对字谜任务的期望，要么不这样做。当受试者被要求陈述期望时，那些解释了假设成功的人不仅期望做得更好，而且实际上也比那些解释失败的人表现得更好。也就是说，所解释的事件在行为上得到了证实。然而，当解释之后没有做出明确的期望时，那些首先解释失败的人做得最好，这表明在没有形成具体的失败预期的情况下提高失败的可能性会激励更好的表现。实验二表明，先前解释和期望陈述的自我实现效应概括到与所解释的事件相似但不完全相同的情况。此外，初始解释的效果优于实际绩效反馈的效果。讨论了这些效应背后的过程以及这些效应的影响。
Past research has demonstrated the effects of explaining hypothetical events on estimates of the probability that these events will occur. Two experiments examined the effects of explaining hypothetical outcomes for oneself on actual behavior in that situation and in a related situation. Subjects first explained hypothetical success or failure on an upcoming anagram task. They then either stated explicit expectations for the anagram task or did not. When subjects were asked to state expectations, those who had explained hypothetical success not only expected to do better but also actually outperformed those who had explained failure. That is, the events explained were behaviorally confirmed. However, when explicit expectations were not made following the explanation, those who had first explained failure did best of all, suggesting that raising the possibility of failure without forming concrete failure expectancies motivates better performance. Experiment II demonstrated that the self-fulfilling effects of prior explanation and expectation statements generalize to situations similar but not identical to the event that was explained. In addition, the effects of initial explanation predominated over the effects of actual performance feedback. The processes underlying these effects as well as the implications of the effects were discussed.