The lack of technical basis for requiring a ten thousand year prediction for nuclear waste management
The lack of technical basis for requiring a ten thousand year prediction for nuclear waste management
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核废料管理缺乏万年预测的技术基础
DOI：
10.1557/proc-333-193
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发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Ramspott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Ramspott
对核废料储存库的管制性能设定1万年的时间限制是没有技术依据的。首先，不可能准确预测这段时期的释放量。第二，一万年没有什么独特之处。第三，同样有毒的物质，永远不会通过放射性衰变转化为无毒物质，没有长期要求。第四，在一万年的时间框架内，社会和自然灾害将使储存库放置的最坏结果相形见绌。只要剂量可能超过目前的辐射防护准则（也许几百万年），就需要进行分析，但这些结果应被视为定性信息，而不是定量地符合确切数值限制的证据。通过保持废物的可回收性，可以在未来几百年解决对长期将发生的事情的关注。那时，未来业绩的不确定性应该大大减少。
There is no technical basis for setting a time limit of 10,000 years on the regulated performance of a nuclear waste repository. First, accurate prediction of releases for such periods is not possible. Second, there is nothing unique about 10,000 years. Third, equally toxic materials, which never transform to non-toxic substances by radioactive decay, have no long-term requirements. And fourth, over a 10,000 year time frame, social and natural disasters will dwarf the worst possible outcomes of repository placement. Analyses could be required to extend as long as doses above current radiation protection guidelines are possible (perhaps several million years), but these results should be recognized as qualitative information rather than evidence of quantitative compliance with exact numerical limits. Concern for what will happen over long times can be addressed for the next several hundred years by maintaining waste retrievability. At that time, uncertainty about future performance should have been reduced significantly.