Uncertainty and Correlation in Seismic Vulnerability Functions of Building Classes
Uncertainty and Correlation in Seismic Vulnerability Functions of Building Classes
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DOI：
10.1193/013018eqs031m
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发表时间：
2019-11
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
V. Silva
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Silva
大多数现有的地震风险研究使用确定性的方法来定义易损性函数，尽管众所周知，损失比率的变化很大，条件是地面震动强度。这项研究探索了一个统计框架来模拟这种变异性，考虑了资产之间存在的相关性，这些资产之间的距离是给定的。考虑到三个具有不同特征的虚拟建筑组合，评估了这些易损性建模方法在概率地震风险评估中可能产生的影响。为此，对损失超越曲线和平均年化损失进行了比较，并对最优易损性建模方法提出了建议。
The majority of the existing seismic risk studies use a deterministic approach to define vulnerability functions, despite the well-recognized large variability in the probability of loss ratio conditional on ground-shaking intensities. This study explored a statistical framework to simulate this variability, considering the existing correlation between assets separated by a given distance. The impact that these vulnerability modeling approaches may have in probabilistic seismic risk assessment is evaluated considering three fictitious building portfolios with distinct characteristics. To this end, loss exceedance curves and average annualized losses are compared, and recommendations are drawn regarding the optimal vulnerability modeling approach.