Spatio-temporal characteristics and control strategies in the early period of COVID-19 spread: a case study of the mainland China.
Spatio-temporal characteristics and control strategies in the early period of COVID-19 spread: a case study of the mainland China.
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COVID-19传播初期的时空特征与控制策略：以中国大陆为例。
DOI：
10.1007/s11356-021-14092-1
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhang H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ning J;Chu Y;Liu X;Zhang D;Zhang J;Li W;Zhang H
新冠肺炎对人类健康和世界经济运行造成了巨大影响。分析和总结突发公共卫生事件的早期传播规律，有助于减少未来突发公共卫生事件造成的损失。本研究选取了新冠肺炎在除湖北、香港、澳门、台湾地区外的内地30个省(区、市)传播的早期数据。运用时空分析、拐点分析、相关性分析等方法探讨了新冠肺炎传播前期的时空特征，结果表明：(1)确诊病例总数随时间呈“S”型曲线上升，日新增病例呈先增后减的趋势；(2)确诊病例总数和日新增病例的空间分布均呈现东多西少的趋势，湖北省及部分主要城市周边呈“多中心集聚分布”；(3)随着时间的推移，确诊病例总数的空间集聚性一直在增加，而每日新增病例的空间集聚性在中期表现得更加明显；(4)及时发布一级公共卫生应急响应可以加速疫情拐点的出现。上述分析结果对政府应对突发公共卫生事件的决策和措施具有一定的参考价值。
COVID-19 has caused huge impacts on human health and the economic operation of the world. Analyzing and summarizing the early propagation law can help reduce the losses caused by public health emergencies in the future. Early data on the spread of COVID-19 in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of mainland China except for Hubei, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were selected in this study. Spatio-temporal analysis, inflection point analysis, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatio-temporal characteristics in the early COVID-19 spread. The results suggested that (1) the total confirmed cases have risen in an “S”-shaped curve over time, and the daily new cases have first increased and finally decreased; (2) the spatial distributions of both total and daily new cases show a trend of more in the east and less in the west, with a “multi-center agglomeration distribution” around Hubei Province and some major cities; (3) the spatial agglomeration of total confirmed cases has been increasing over time, while that of the daily new cases shows much more obvious in the mid-stage; and (4) timely release of the first-level public health emergency response can accelerate the emergence of the epidemic inflection point. The above analysis results have a specific reference value for the government’s policy-making and measures to face public health emergencies.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-020-11662-7
发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
Environmental science and pollution research international
影响因子：
--
作者：
Coccia M
通讯作者：
Coccia M
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Chen, Jiahui;Wang, Rui;Wei, Guo-Wei
通讯作者：
Wei, Guo-Wei
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30800-8
发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Burki T
通讯作者：
Burki T
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chen Y;Li Q;Karimian H;Chen X;Li X
通讯作者：
Li X
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Feng Z;Xiao C;Li P;You Z;Yin X;Zheng F
通讯作者：
Zheng F