Trends in pesticide suicide in South Korea, 1983-2014.
Trends in pesticide suicide in South Korea, 1983-2014.
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DOI：
10.1017/s2045796019000118
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发表时间：
2019-03-19
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Lee WJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cha ES;Chang SS;Choi Y;Lee WJ
使用杀虫剂自毒是全世界自杀的主要方法之一，占韩国 2006 年至 2010 年自杀人数的五分之一。我们调查了韩国农药自杀率的长期趋势以及与这些趋势相关的因素。我们利用登记的死亡数据计算了韩国（1983-2014）年龄标准化的农药自杀率。我们使用图形方法和连接点回归分析来研究按性别、年龄和地区划分的农药自杀的长期趋势，并使用时间序列分析来调查农药自杀率与社会经济和农业相关因素的关系。使用内在估计方法检查年龄、时期和队列效应。年龄标准化农药自杀率在1983年至2000年间波动，之后在2000年至2003年显着上升（年百分比变化29.7%），随后在2003年至2011年逐渐下降（年百分比变化-6.3%）。百草枯禁令（2011-2012 年）之后，2011-2014 年出现显着减少（年百分比变化 -28.2%）。农药自杀趋势与离婚率相关，但与所研究的其他因素无关。 2003 年至 2011 年，因农药自杀的下降在年轻群体和大都市中最为明显；相比之下，生活在农村地区的 70 岁以上老年人则呈上升趋势，直到 2011-2012 年百草枯禁令之后才出现下降。在年龄-时期-队列模型中，出生于 1938 年至 1947 年之间的人与较高的杀虫剂自杀率相关。过去三十年来，韩国的杀虫剂自杀趋势发生了巨大变化。有效的预防应包括密切监测有毒农药的趋势和强有力的监管。
Self-poisoning using pesticides is among the major methods of suicide worldwide, and accounts for one-fifth of suicides in 2006–2010 in South Korea. We investigated long-term trends in pesticide suicide rates in South Korea and factors related to these trends. We calculated age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide in South Korea (1983–2014) using registered death data. We used graphical approach and joinpoint regression analysis to examine secular trends in pesticide suicide by sex, age and area, and a time-series analysis to investigate association of pesticide suicide rate with socioeconomic and agriculture-related factors. Age, period and cohort effects were examined using the intrinsic estimator method. Age-standardised rate of pesticide suicide fluctuated between 1983 and 2000 before it markedly increased in 2000–2003 (annual percent change 29.7%), followed by a gradual fall (annual percent change −6.3%) in 2003–2011. Following the paraquat ban (2011–2012), there was a marked reduction (annual percent change −28.2%) in 2011–2014. Trend in pesticide suicide was associated with divorce rate but not with other factors studied. Declines in pesticide suicide in 2003–2011 were most noticeable in younger groups and metropolises; by contrast, elderly adults aged 70+ living in rural areas showed an upward trend until after the 2011–2012 paraquat ban, when it turned downward. In the age–period–cohort modelling, having been born between 1938 and 1947 was associated with higher pesticide suicide rates. Pesticide suicide trend changed substantially in South Korea over the last three decades. Effective prevention should include close monitoring of trends and strong regulations of toxic pesticides.