What's Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion
What's Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion
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运气与它有什么关系？
DOI：
10.4309/jgi.2011.26.11
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
N. Shead
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Shead
在《运气与它有何关系？》的简介中，作者约瑟夫·马祖尔 (Joseph Mazur) 简要介绍了他早期对赌博世界的灌输。马祖尔回忆起与叔叔们关于运气和赔率的谈话，这表明他早熟地热衷于理解为什么人们尽管在数学上存在固有的劣势，但仍会赌博。在后来的生活中，当他看到当地便利店的顾客购买大把彩票时，这个问题仍然挥之不去。这本书是他长期以来对赌博感兴趣的结果，旨在探讨赌徒的错觉（或“赌徒谬误”），即随机事件的平均结果的偏差应该在短期内自行纠正。尽管写一整卷关于赌博相关的认知似乎雄心勃勃，但马祖尔还是用三个部分证明了这种人类谬误的极其深刻的历史、数学和心理学意义。
In the introduction to What’s Luck Got To Do With It?, author Joseph Mazur provides a brief account of his early indoctrination into the gambling world. Mazur’s recollection of conversations on luck and odds with his uncles suggests he had a precocious fascination in understanding why people gamble despite the inherent mathematical disadvantage. Later in life, the question still lingered as he watched patrons at local convenience stores buying fistfuls of lottery tickets. This book is the result of his long-held interest in gambling, which aims to explore the gambler’s illusion (or “gambler’s fallacy”) that deviations from average outcomes of random events should correct themselves in the short term. Although it might seem ambitious to write an entire volume on a gambling-related cognition, Mazur nevertheless demonstrates in three sections the incredibly deep historical, mathematical, and psychological significance of this human fallacy.