Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on pome
Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on pome
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发表时间：
2006
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通讯作者：
Y. Jie
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作者：
Y. Jie
针对常规的基于确定性数值分析模型的反分析方法不能综合考虑各种不确定性因素的影响，难以模拟复杂工程系统的不确定性特征的不足，研究了一种工程系统不确定性反分析方法，从不确定性分析的角度，将工程结构视为一个不确定性系统，提出了一种基于最大熵原理的贝叶斯不确定性反分析方法，将信息熵理论与贝叶斯反分析方法有机地结合起来，从而将不确定性反分析的系统判别问题转化为贝叶斯规则函数的优化评价问题。利用适当的优化方法，可以实现工程结构参数或水源荷载的不确定性反分析。利用该方法对大坝混凝土弹性模量和基岩变形模量等材料参数进行了反演分析，计算结果表明，反演得到的材料参数正确，精度高于常规方法确定性反分析方法是目前广泛使用的反分析方法。
The routine methods of inverse analysis based on deterministic models of numerical analysis can not synthetically take into account the influences of various uncertainty factors,and so are difficult to be utilized to simulate the uncertainty characteristics of complicated engineering system.Aimed at this shortage,an uncertainty inverse analysis method for engineering system was studied.From uncertainty analysis point of view,the engineering structure was considered as an uncertainty system,and a Bayesian uncertainty inverse analysis method based on the principle of maximum entropy(POME) was put forward,which organically combined information entropy theory and Bayesian method of inverse analysis,so that the system discriminance problem of uncertainty inverse analysis was transformed into an optimization evaluation problem for Bayesian rule function. Utilizing appropriate optimization method,uncertainty inverse analysis could be realized for evaluations of engineering structure parameters or fountainhead loads.As an engineering example,the method advanced was utilized to carry out inverse analyses of material parameters of dam concrete elastic modulus and bedrock deformation modulus.The calculation results show that the material parameters obtained are right and that the precision is higher than that of the conventional deterministic methods of inverse analysis which is widely used presently.