Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts
Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.14007
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发表时间：
2022-10-30
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Plowright, Raina K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Becker, Daniel J.;Eby, Peggy;Plowright, Raina K.
野生动物宿主所经历的生态条件影响感染动态，从而影响排泄到环境中的病原体的分布。这种空间和时间分布的棚病原体已被假设形状的人畜共患病溢出的风险。然而，很少有系统同时拥有长期生态条件和病原体排泄的数据，以促进机制理解并测试溢出风险的环境驱动因素。在这里，我们分析了三年的亨德拉病毒数据从9个澳大利亚飞狐栖息地的协变量来自蝙蝠生态的长期研究。我们表明，冬季脉冲的病毒排泄，以前被认为是特异质的幅度，是最明显的最近的食物短缺后，在蝙蝠种群迁移到新的栖息地。我们进一步表明，随着时间的推移，累积的病原体排泄是由蝙蝠生态和积极预测溢出频率。我们的工作强调了水库宿主生态在塑造病原体排泄中的作用，并提供了一种新的方法来估计溢出风险。
The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.