Early warning model for slope debris flow initiation

Early warning model for slope debris flow initiation
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边坡泥石流引发预警模型

DOI:
10.1007/s11629-017-4779-z
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发表时间:
2018-06
影响因子:
2.5
通讯作者:
Jiang YJ
Jiang YJ
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Ming-li;Jiang Yuan-jun;Qiao Jian-ping;Yang Zong-ji;Li Ming-li;Yang Tao;Huang Qiang-bing;Jiang YJ

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泥石流预警模型对于为当地居民提供可靠、准确的预警信息,帮助他们躲避泥石流灾害具有重要意义。以四川都江堰市银洞子沟为研究对象,采用缩比模型试验对其泥石流起裂过程进行了研究。以降雨强度和坡角为主要参数,在人工降雨条件下进行了20次缩小模型试验。试验设置了4种坡角(32°、34°、37°、42°)和5种降雨强度(60 mm/h、90 mm/h、120 mm/h、150 mm/h和180 mm/h)处理。对降雨持续时间、孔隙水压力、含水率、地表倾角、体积等试验特征变量进行了监测。试验结果揭示了松散边坡材料的破坏模式和边坡泥石流起爆过程,以及表面变形与试验模型物理参数之间的关系。首先通过数学回归分析建立传统的降雨强度-持续时间预警模型(I-D模型),然后将其改进为ISD模型和ISM模型(其中I为降雨强度,S为坡角,D为降雨持续时间,M为含水率)。该预警模型可为边坡泥石流起爆提供可靠的预警。
Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, China with scaled-down model experiments. We set rainfall intensity and slope angle as dominating parameters and carried out 20 scaled-down model tests under artificial rainfall conditions. The experiments set four slope angles (32°, 34°, 37°, 42°) and five rainfall intensities (60 mm/h, 90 mm/h, 120 mm/h, 150 mm/h, and 180 mm/h) treatments. The characteristic variables in the experiments, such as, rainfall duration, pore water pressure, moisture content, surface inclination, and volume were monitored. The experimental results revealed the failure mode of loose slope material and the process of slope debris flow initiation, as well as the relationship between the surface deformation and the physical parameters of experimental model. A traditional rainfall intensity-duration early warning model (I-D model) was firstly established by using a mathematical regression analysis, and it was then improved into ISD model and ISM model (Here, I is rainfall Intensity, S is Slope angle, D is rainfall Duration, and M is Moisture content). The warning model can provide reliable early warning of slope debris flow initiation.
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