Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models
Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-14-00117.1
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Winton, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Frolicher, Thomas L.;Sarmiento, Jorge L.;Winton, Michael
作者评估了1861 - 2005年期间海洋人为碳和热量的吸收，运输和储存，在一组新的耦合碳-气候地球系统模型中进行耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 5）的第五阶段，特别关注南大洋。模拟结果表明，南纬30度以南的南大洋占全球海洋表面积的30%，占人类活动CO2的43%~63%（42 + 5 PgC），占海洋吸收热量的75%~622%（23 + 9 × 10（22）J）。从南大洋向北的迁移是有力的，使该区域的人为碳储存量减少到33 +/-6 Pg，热量减少到12 +/-7 x 10（22）J。CMIP 5模型作为一类，往往低估了基于观测的全球人为碳储存，但在基于观测的估计的不确定性范围内模拟了过去50年全球海洋热储存的趋势。CMIP 5模型表明，全球和南大洋的二氧化碳吸收基本上不受最近气候变异和变化的影响。人为碳和热储存显示出共同的大尺度变化模式，但海洋热储存比海洋碳储存更有结构性。结果突出了南大洋对全球气候的重要性，并作为模型在人为CO2代表性，特别是热吸收方面差异最大的区域。
The authors assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and heat over the period 1861-2005 in a new set of coupled carbon-climate Earth system models conducted for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with a particular focus on the Southern Ocean. Simulations show that the Southern Ocean south of 30 degrees S, occupying 30% of global surface ocean area, accounts for 43% 63% (42 + 5 PgC) of anthropogenic CO2 and 75% 622% (23 + 9 x 10(22) J) of heat uptake by the ocean over the historical period. Northward transport out of the Southern Ocean is vigorous, reducing the storage to 33 +/- 6 Pg anthropogenic carbon and 12 +/- 7 x 10(22) J heat in the region. The CMIP5 models, as a class, tend to underestimate the observation-based global anthropogenic carbon storage but simulate trends in global ocean heat storage over the last 50 years within uncertainties of observation-based estimates. CMIP5 models suggest global and Southern Ocean CO2 uptake have been largely unaffected by recent climate variability and change. Anthropogenic carbon and heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is more structured than ocean carbon storage. The results highlight the significance of the Southern Ocean for the global climate and as the region where models differ the most in representation of anthropogenic CO2 and, in particular, heat uptake.