Postmortem time estimation using body temperature and a finite-element computer model
Postmortem time estimation using body temperature and a finite-element computer model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00421-004-1128-z
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Lotens, WA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
den Hartog, EA;Lotens, WA
在荷兰，大多数谋杀案受害者在案发后2-24小时被发现。在此期间，体温下降是推断死亡时间（PMT）最可靠的方法。最近，对两起谋杀案进行了分析，在这两起案件中，目前可用的方法不能提供对PMT的足够可靠的估计。在这两起案件中，都进行了一项研究，以核实嫌疑人的陈述。为此，开发了一个有限元计算机模型，模拟人体躯干及其服装。有了这个模型，身体和环境的变化也可以模拟;这在一个案例中非常相关，因为身体一直在一个小火的存在。在这两种情况下，都有可能通过提高PMT估计的准确性来伪造嫌疑人的陈述。估计PMT在这两种情况下的范围内的Henssge的模型。PMT估计值的标准差在第一种情况下为35分钟，在第二种情况下为45分钟，而在Henssge模型中为168分钟（2.8小时）。总之，本文提出的模型对于提高PMT估计的准确性具有额外的价值。与Henssge的简单模型相比，当前的模型在获得更详细的信息时可以提高准确性。此外，可以研究预测PMT对环境中不确定性的敏感性，这对判断结果的信心至关重要。
In the Netherlands most murder victims are found 2-24 h after the crime. During this period, body temperature decrease is the most reliable method to estimate the postmortem time (PMT). Recently, two murder cases were analysed in which currently available methods did not provide a sufficiently reliable estimate of the PMT. In both cases a study was performed to verify the statements of suspects. For this purpose a finite-element computer model was developed that simulates a human torso and its clothing. With this model, changes to the body and the environment can also be modelled; this was very relevant in one of the cases, as the body had been in the presence of a small fire. In both cases it was possible to falsify the statements of the suspects by improving the accuracy of the PMT estimate. The estimated PMT in both cases was within the range of Henssge's model. The standard deviation of the PMT estimate was 35 min in the first case and 45 min in the second case, compared to 168 min (2.8 h) in Henssge's model. In conclusion, the model as presented here can have additional value for improving the accuracy of the PMT estimate. In contrast to the simple model of Henssge, the current model allows for increased accuracy when more detailed information is available. Moreover, the sensitivity of the predicted PMT for uncertainty in the circumstances can be studied, which is crucial to the confidence of the judge in the results.