Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?
Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2020-214373
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发表时间：
2020-11-03
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Ruth D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCartney G;Leyland A;Walsh D;Ruth D
迄今为止，COVID-19 对死亡率的影响是通过粗死亡人数来描述的。我们的目的是使用年龄标准化死亡率和预期寿命贡献与其他社会决定的死因来校准 COVID-19 模型死亡率影响的规模，以便向政府和公众通报情况。我们将自杀、药物中毒和社会经济不平等造成的死亡率与 COVID-19 传染病模型的死亡率估计值进行了比较。我们计算了英国及其组成国家的年龄标准化死亡率和预期寿命贡献。据估计，完全未缓解的 COVID-19 大流行造成的死亡率将导致英国的预期寿命下降 -5.96 岁。在完全缓解的情况下，这一时间减少至 -0.33 年。自杀、药物中毒和社会经济不平等相关死亡的等效年预期寿命分别为-0.25、-0.20和-3.51岁。因此，完全未缓解的 COVID-19 对预期寿命的负面影响相当于英国 24 年的自杀死亡、30 年的药物中毒死亡和 1.7 年的不平等相关死亡。据估计，完全缓解新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的影响可以避免英国预期寿命减少 5.63 年。十年来，不平等对预期寿命的负面影响比大约六次未缓解的 COVID-19 流行病还要大。因此，为了实现人口健康的长期改善，重要的是要借此机会推出大流行后的经济政策以“重建得更好”。
The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to ‘build back better’.
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影响因子：
50
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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