Trade Potential in SAFTA - An Application of Augmented Gravity Model
Trade Potential in SAFTA - An Application of Augmented Gravity Model
复制标题
SAFTA 的贸易潜力 - 增强引力模型的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Das
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mustafiz Rahman;W. Shadat;N. Das
本文利用引力模型，以南亚自由贸易区为研究对象，对若干区域贸易协定的贸易创造和贸易转移效应进行了研究。除了传统的引力变量外，该模型还增加了其他一些进口变量（如双边汇率，双边自由贸易协定）。为了反映单个国家的影响，沿着区域贸易协定的总体影响，引入了一套额外的虚拟变量。本文开发的模型是通过使用具有特定国家对和特定年份固定效应的面板数据方法进行估计的。两阶段估计技术被部署来达到估计。第一阶段采用Tobit模型进行估计，第二阶段采用OLS模型进行估计。研究发现，南亚优惠贸易区创造了大量集团内出口;但同时也有证据表明，南亚优惠贸易区存在净出口转移。孟加拉国、印度和巴基斯坦有望从加入区域贸易协定中获益，而尼泊尔、马尔代夫和斯里兰卡则可能受到负面影响。在本研究报告涵盖的其他区域贸易协定中，东盟自由贸易区、北美自由贸易区、南共体、南方共同市场、加拿大、东非共同体与集团内出口创造和净出口转移有关。欧盟与曼谷协定（APTA）存在集团内出口转移和净出口转移。孟加拉湾多部门技术合作被认为是集团内部的出口转移，但没有证据表明净出口创造或转移。虽然研究报告所涵盖的区域贸易协定中没有一个被认为是创造净出口的，但这些区域贸易协定的三分之一以上的成员国被认为因加入这些区域贸易协定而受到积极影响。
The present paper investigates the trade creation and trade diversion effects of a number of RTAs, with special focus on the SAFTA, by using a gravity model. Apart from the traditional gravity variables, the model is augmented by some other import variables (e.g. bilateral exchange rate, bilateral free trade agreement). To capture the individual country effect, along with the impact of overall RTA, a set of additional dummy variable has been introduced. The model developed in this paper is estimated by using panel data approach with country-pair specific as well as year specific fixed effects. Two stages estimation technique is deployed to arrive at the estimates. The first stage is estimated using Tobit Model, while OLS is applied in the second stage. The study finds significant intra-bloc export creation in SAPTA; however, at the same time there is evidence of net export diversion in the SAPTA. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are expected to gain from joining the RTA, while Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka are likely to be negatively affected. Among the other RTAs covered under the present study, AFTA, NAFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR, CAN, EAC are associated with intra-bloc export creation and net export diversion. EU and Bangkok agreement (APTA) are found to be intra-bloc export diverting and net export diverting. BIMSTEC is found to be intra-bloc export diverting but there is no evidence of net export creation or diversion. Although none of the RTAs covered by the study was found to be net export creating, more than one third of the members of these RTAs are found to be positively affected by joining the RTAs.
影响因子：
8
作者：
BERGSTRAND, JH
通讯作者：
BERGSTRAND, JH