Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions
Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1217962
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发表时间：
2012-06-22
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Lotsch, Alexander
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harris, Nancy L.;Brown, Sandra;Lotsch, Alexander
减少毁林所致排放量的政策将受益于对碳排放量的明确推导、空间清晰、有统计界限的估计。现有的努力是使用宽泛的假设、不可靠的数据或两者兼而有之来得出土地利用变化的碳影响。我们改进了这种方法，利用卫星观测的森林覆盖总损失和森林碳储量的地图，估计2000年至2005年期间整个热带地区的总碳排放量为每年0.81 petagram的碳，90%的预测区间为每年0.57至1.22 petagram的碳。这一估计数是最近公布的估计数的25%至50%。通过系统地将森林损失面积与清除前的碳储量相匹配，这些结果可以作为监测全球减少毁林所致排放量进展的更准确基准。
Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.