Inter‐decadal variability of the location of maximum intensity of category 4–5 typhoons and its implication on landfall intensity in East Asia
Inter‐decadal variability of the location of maximum intensity of category 4–5 typhoons and its implication on landfall intensity in East Asia
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5919
复制
发表时间：
2018-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Liu;J. Chan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Liu;J. Chan
本研究探讨西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）一生最大强度（LMI）位置的变化及其对东亚不同地区TC登陆强度的可能影响。1960-2016年，热带风暴强度以上热带气旋的年平均LMI纬度呈显著上升趋势，而强台风的年平均LMI纬度呈显著上升趋势，（4-5类）没有趋势，但有显著的年代际变化，具有明显的高纬度时期（1960-1969年和1991-2011年）和低纬度地区（1970-1990年、2012-2016年）。通过对1970-1990年和1991-2011年两个时期的LMI空间格局的比较，发现第一至第二个时期LMI的位置从东亚南部向北方迁移。这一转变的结果，从一个较高的百分比的反弯和北向TC，向北移动的成因位置和增加的纬度距离之间的位置和LMI的位置在第二个时期。因此，日本、半岛和我国东部强台风登陆频率和登陆TC平均强度增加，而我国南部减弱。较高的频率和平均登陆强度导致较高的年最大登陆强度，这是更显着的日本和朝鲜半岛半岛。但对东亚南部登陆强度的影响不明显，仅对华南地区年最大登陆强度有明显的减弱。
This study investigates the variations of the location of the lifetime‐maximum intensity (LMI) of the tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific and the possible implications on the TC landfall intensity in different regions of East Asia. While the annual mean LMI latitude of TCs with at least tropical storm intensity shows a significant upwards trend during 1960–2016, that for intense typhoons (category 4–5) has no trend but a significant inter‐decadal variation, with distinct periods of higher latitude (1960–1969 and 1991–2011) and lower latitude (1970–1990, 2012–2016). A comparison of the spatial patterns of LMI during the periods 1970–1990 and 1991–2011 shows that the LMI location migrates from the southern to the northern part of East Asia from the first to the second period. This shift results from a higher percentage of recurving and north oriented TCs, a northwards shift of genesis locations and an increase in latitudinal distance between genesis position and LMI location in the second period. The frequency of intense typhoon landfalls and the average landfall intensities of the landfalling TCs therefore increase in Japan, the Korean Peninsula and east China but decrease in southern China. The higher frequency and average landfall intensity lead to higher annual maximum landfall intensity, which is more significant for Japan and the Korean Peninsula. However, the effect on landfall intensity in the southern part of East Asia is not obvious, with only a significant decrease in annual maximum landfall intensities in southern China.