Longitudinal prediction of the operational energy use of buildings
Longitudinal prediction of the operational energy use of buildings
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.02.006
复制
发表时间：
2011-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Wilde;W. Tian;G. Augenbroe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Wilde;W. Tian;G. Augenbroe
到目前为止，大多数关于建筑物运行能耗的研究都没有从纵向的角度来看，或者换句话说，没有考虑到运行能耗在建筑物寿命期间是如何变化的。然而，在预测气候变化的影响时，或出于长期能源核算的目的，这种观点很重要。本文提出了一种提供运营能源使用的纵向预测的方法。这项工作是基于对热性能恶化、建筑维护影响和未来气候变化的审查。关键问题是在同时考虑建筑物维护和不断变化的天气条件的情况下，估计建筑构件的使用寿命和热性能退化。文中给出了两个例子，分别说明了确定性方法和随机方法的应用。这项工作的结论是，运营能源使用的纵向预测是可行的，但预测将在很大程度上取决于是否有广泛和可靠的监测数据。这一前提在目前的大多数建筑中都没有得到满足。
Thus far most studies of operational energy use of buildings fail to take a longitudinal view, or in other words, do not take into account how operational energy use changes during the lifetime of a building. However, such a view is important when predicting the impact of climate change, or for long term energy accounting purposes. This article presents an approach to deliver a longitudinal prediction of operational energy use. The work is based on the review of deterioration in thermal performance, building maintenance effects, and future climate change. The key issues are to estimate the service life expectancy and thermal performance degradation of building components while building maintenance and changing weather conditions are considered at the same time. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the application of the deterministic and stochastic approaches, respectively. The work concludes that longitudinal prediction of operational energy use is feasible, but the prediction will depend largely on the availability of extensive and reliable monitoring data. This premise is not met in most current buildings.