Cold Weather Teleconnections from Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
Cold Weather Teleconnections from Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Ocean Warming
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未来北极海冰消失和海洋变暖的寒冷天气遥相关
DOI：
10.1002/essoar.10512271.1
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lo Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lo Y
近几十年来，北极地区迅速变暖，海冰减少。这些趋势可能会继续下去，可能会改变北半球其他地方的冬季极端气候。我们利用协调极点放大模式比较计划(PAMIP)实验来分解北半球冬季寒冷温度对未来北极海冰减少和海面温度(SST)变化的响应，分别在2摄氏度全球平均变暖。由于北极海冰的消失，极端寒冷(20年重现期)在中高纬度地区将普遍变暖，其中加拿大东部的变暖幅度最大。海温变化将使各地的极端寒冷变暖，压倒模拟的海冰引起的冷却反应，例如在美国西南部。总体而言，海温引起的变化比海冰引起的变化占主导地位，除了东加拿大、努纳武特(加拿大)和北太平洋俄罗斯。我们的结果表明，如果气候模型不能充分捕捉海冰和海温成分，极端寒冷将是有偏见的。
Rapid Arctic warming and decline in sea ice have been observed in recent decades. These trends will likely continue, potentially changing winter extremes elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. We use coordinated Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) experiments to decompose the Northern Hemisphere winter cold temperature responses to future Arctic sea-ice loss and sea surface temperature (SST) change, separately, at 2C global mean warming. Cold extremes (20-year return period) will generally become warmer at high- and mid-latitudes due to Arctic sea-ice loss, with the largest warming in East Canada. SST change will warm cold extremes everywhere, overwhelming simulated sea ice-induced cooling responses in, e.g., southwestern United States. In general, the SST-induced changes dominate over sea ice-induced changes, with exceptions in East Canada, Nunavut (Canada) and North Pacific Russia. Our results suggest that if climate models do not adequately capture the sea-ice and SST components, cold extremes will be biased.