A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles:: an evaluation of different vaccination strategies
A model of bovine tuberculosis in the badger Meles meles:: an evaluation of different vaccination strategies
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DOI：
10.1111/j.0021-8901.2004.00898.x
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发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Cheeseman, CL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilkinson, D;Smith, GC;Cheeseman, CL
1.近年来，牛结核病（TB）在英格兰西南部的发病率一直在上升。欧洲獾Meles meles与结核病向牛的传播有关，一直是试图控制这种疾病的扑杀行动的对象。一个基于个人的，空间的，随机的，模拟模型被用来调查结核病的控制獾的各种獾疫苗接种策略。几乎所有的人口和流行病学参数都来自于一个长期研究中心。异质承载能力（每个獾社会群体的繁殖雌性的最大数量）和不同大小的獾领土被用来模拟自然异质性。该模型包括结核病从獾传播到牛，以允许獾的反应性疫苗接种，即对阳性牛结核病检测结果的反应。该模型预测，社会群体领土之间的邻近性（例如自然屏障）减少的獾种群将具有较低的结核病患病率。在没有关于獾社会群体中结核病真实流行率的信息的情况下，在模型中，以低疫苗概率（10%成功免疫）接种80%的群体比以较高概率（80%成功免疫）接种10%的群体更有效地降低了獾的结核病流行率。虽然这是一个成本较低的选择，但与积极主动的策略相比，纯粹针对牛群感染给獾接种疫苗需要更长的时间才能将獾结核病患病率降低到50%（7-20年，3-5年）。模拟表明，每年至少有40%的健康獾需要接种疫苗，以根除獾中的结核病。该模型表明，接种獾是一个可行的替代獾扑杀控制牛结核病。没有研究联合控制策略。合成与应用。广泛主动接种疫苗似乎是控制疾病的最有效策略。最初的主动疫苗接种，然后是局部反应性疫苗接种，可以导致更大的减少疾病的患病率更少的努力。这很可能是控制野生动物疾病的全球性发现，尽管积极运动的最佳持续时间将取决于具体情况（例如疾病的检出率）。
1. In recent years bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidence in cattle has been increasing in south-west England. The European badger Meles meles is implicated in the transmission of TB to cattle and has been the subject of culling operations in an attempt to control the disease.2. An individual-based, spatial, stochastic, simulation model was used to investigate the control of TB in the badger by various badger-vaccination strategies. Nearly all population and epidemiological parameters were derived from a single long-term study site. Heterogeneous carrying capacities (the maximum number of breeding females per badger social group) and different sized badger territories were used to simulate natural heterogeneity. The model included the transmission of TB from badgers to cattle to allow reactive vaccination of badgers, i.e. in response to positive cattle TB test results.3. The model predicted that badger populations with reduced contiguity (e.g. natural barriers) between social group territories would have a lower TB prevalence.4. In the absence of information on the true prevalence of TB in badger social groups, vaccinating 80% of groups at a low vaccine probability (10% successfully immunized) was more effective in the model at reducing prevalence of TB in badgers, than vaccinating 10% of the groups at a higher probability (80% successfully immunized).5. Although a lower cost option, vaccinating badgers purely in reaction to cattle herd infections took longer to reduce badger TB prevalence to 50% than proactive strategies (7-20 years compared with 3-5 years). Simulations suggested that at least 40% of healthy badgers need to be immunized each year to eradicate TB in the badger. The model indicated that vaccination of badgers is a viable alternative to badger culling for the control of TB in cattle. Combined control policies were not investigated.6. Synthesis and applications. Widespread proactive vaccination appears to be the most effective strategy for disease control. Initial proactive vaccination followed by localized reactive vaccination can lead to a greater reduction in disease prevalence for less effort. This is likely to be a global finding for the control of wildlife diseases, although the optimal duration for a proactive campaign will depend upon specific circumstances (e.g. detection rate of disease).