Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?
Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?
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DOI：
10.1080/13546780600872726
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发表时间：
2007-02-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Elwakili, Najat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ayton, Peter;Pott, Alice;Elwakili, Najat
两项研究探索了经常被报道的一项发现，即情绪化预测过于极端。在第一项研究中，驾驶考试考生预测了不及格的情绪后果。考试不及格的人高估了他们失望的持续时间。之前对这一情绪事件的更多经验并没有带来任何更高的预测准确性，这表明了解一个人自己的情绪是困难的。测试后一周，失败者自我评估的及格几率低于测试前；这种差异与个体立即感到失望的程度有关，表明存在从失望中恢复的认知策略。第二项研究调查了这样一种理论，即过度关注现在和未来之间的差异会使情感预测产生偏差。“离焦”导致对未来的低水平解释降低了情感预测的极端程度，但较高水平的解释并没有。我们的结论是，聚焦效应可能会使情感预测产生偏差。
Two studies explore the frequently reported finding that affective forecasts are too extreme. In the first study, driving test candidates forecast the emotional consequences of failing. Test failers overestimated the duration of their disappointment. Greater previous experience of this emotional event did not lead to any greater accuracy of the forecasts, suggesting that learning about one's own emotions is difficult. Failers' self-assessed chances of passing were lower a week after the test than immediately prior to the test; this difference correlated with the magnitude of individual immediate disappointments, suggesting the presence of a cognitive strategy for recovering from disappointments. A second study investigated the theory that undue focus on the differences between present and future biases affective forecasts. "Defocusing" that induced low-level construals of the future reduced the extremeness of affective forecasts but a higher-level construal did not. We conclude that a focusing effect may bias affective forecasts.