A hierarchical model for estimating the early reliability of complex systems
A hierarchical model for estimating the early reliability of complex systems
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DOI：
10.1109/tr.2005.847262
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发表时间：
2005-05
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Valen E. Johnson;A. Moosman;Paul Cotter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Valen E. Johnson;A. Moosman;Paul Cotter
我们描述了一个分层贝叶斯模型，用于评估复杂系统的早期可靠性，稀疏或没有系统级故障数据，除了存在的可比系统开发的不同类别的制造商。该模型的新功能是包含一个“质量”指数，允许对“经验丰富”和“缺乏经验”的制造商生产的系统进行单独处理。我们展示了如何使用这个指数来区分前几次应用中每类制造商生产的系统的行为，以及在前几次使用后两类制造商的结果（即，在没有经验的制造商获得经验之后）。我们演示了这个模型，加上适当的信息先验，可以重现在建模系统的可靠性增长。新的航天器的早期发射的故障概率（和相关的不确定性）的估计是用来说明的方法。免责声明-本文仅用于说明分层贝叶斯方法如何应用于估计新引入的具有稀疏或不存在系统级测试数据的复杂系统的系统可靠性（包括不确定性）。所考虑的示例问题（即估计新运载火箭的故障概率）仅用于说明目的。作者在整个文档中做了许多假设和近似，以证明核心技术。本文中提出的具体方法、结果和结论未经美国空军或联邦航空管理局批准或认可。
We describe a hierarchical Bayesian model for assessing the early reliability of complex systems, for which sparse or no system level failure data are available, except that which exists for comparable systems developed by different categories of manufacturers. Novel features of the model are the inclusion of a "quality" index to allow separate treatment for systems produced by "experienced" & "inexperienced" manufacturers. We show how this index can be employed to distinguish the behavior of systems produced by each category of manufacturer for the first few applications, with later pooling of outcomes from both categories of manufacturers after the first few uses (i.e., after inexperienced manufacturers gain experience). We demonstrate how this model, together with suitable informative priors, can reproduce the reliability growth in the modeled systems. Estimation of failure probabilities (and associated uncertainties) for early launches of new space vehicles is used to illustrate the methodology. Disclaimer-This paper is provided solely to illustrate how hierarchical Bayesian methods can be applied to estimate systems reliability (including uncertainties) for newly introduced complex systems with sparse or nonexistent system level test data. The example problem considered (i.e. estimating failure probabilities of new launch vehicles) is employed solely for illustrative purposes. The authors have made numerous assumptions & approximations throughout the document in order to demonstrate the central techniques. The specific methodologies, results, and conclusions presented in this paper are neither approved nor endorsed by the United States Air Force or the Federal Aviation Administration.