Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID-19
Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1002/jmv.25885
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发表时间：
2020-04-25
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Jahandideh, Arash
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dehkordi, Amirhoshang Hoseinpour;Alizadeh, Majid;Jahandideh, Arash
2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）已影响181个国家，约有1197405例确诊病例（截至4月5日）。了解每天受到影响的每个国家的感染传播动态并评估控制政策的有效性对我们采取进一步行动至关重要。迄今为止，COVID-19报告病例的统计数据显示，超过80%的感染者为轻度病例，约14%的感染者出现严重并发症，约5%被归类为重症患者。今天的报告（2020年4月5日;每日更新在准备好的网站上）显示，美国，西班牙，意大利和德国的COVID-19确诊病例分别为308850，126168，124632和96092。计算意大利的总病死率（CFR）（2020年4月4日），约13.3%的确诊病例已经死亡。与韩国1.8%（比意大利低7倍）、中国4%（比意大利低69%）的费率相比，意大利的CFR过高。一些有效的政策使病例趋势发生了重大变化，如中国、意大利和西班牙的封锁政策（几天后观察到的效果），湖北所有非必要公司的关闭（5天后观察到的效果），韩国的综合政策，以及伊朗的减少工作时间。
The 2019 novel-coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries with approximately 1197405 confirmed cases (by 5th April). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which got affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies are critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show that more than 80% of infected are mild cases of disease, around 14% of infected have severe complications, and about 5% are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (5th April 2020; daily updates in the prepared website) shows that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092, respectively. Calculating the total case fatality rate (CFR) of Italy (4th April 2020), about 13.3% of confirmed cases have passed away. Compared with South Korea's rate of 1.8% (seven times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. Some effective policies that yielded significant changes in the trend of cases were the lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), the shutdown of all nonessential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.