Power-law scaling and probabilistic forecasting of tsunami runup heights
Power-law scaling and probabilistic forecasting of tsunami runup heights
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DOI：
10.1007/s00024-004-2603-5
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tebbens, SF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burroughs, SM;Tebbens, SF
幂律比例关系描述了日本10个地点的海啸上升高度。海啸的比例律知识可以作为未来事件规模和数量的概率预测以及估计特大事件概率的基础。利用美国国家地球物理数据中心存档的海啸助跑数据，我们研究了10个地点的海啸记录跨越至少一个数量级的助跑高度和时间记录延伸到几十年前。幂律或上截幂律描述了所有10个地点的海啸爬高高度的累积频率-大小分布。在记录足以检查记录内的较短时间间隔的情况下，较短时间间隔的缩放关系与整个记录的缩放关系一致。该比例关系用于确定每个位置海啸上升高度的复发间隔。除了用于确定比例关系的海啸记录外，在某些地点，大型事件（> 5米）的记录可以追溯到几个世纪前。我们发现，这些大事件的复发间隔与最近的记录预测的频率是一致的。对于确定了比例关系的海啸易发地点，预测的复发间隔可能对海岸工程师和应急管理机构的规划有用。
A power-law scaling relationship describes tsunami runup heights at ten locations in Japan. Knowledge of the scaling law for tsunamis can be the basis for probabilistic forecasting of the size and number of future events and for estimating probabilities of extremely large events. Using tsunami runup data archived by the U.S. National Geophysical Data Center, we study ten locations where the tsunami record spans at least one order of magnitude in runup height and the temporal record extends back several decades. A power law or upper-truncated power law describes the cumulative frequency-size distribution of tsunami runup heights at all ten locations. Where the record is sufficient to examine shorter time intervals within the record, the scaling relationship for the shorter time intervals is consistent with the scaling relationship for the entire record. The scaling relationship is used to determine recurrence intervals for tsunami runup heights at each location. In addition to the tsunami record used to determine the scaling relationship, at some of the locations a record of large events ( > 5 m) extends back several centuries. We find that the recurrence intervals of these large events are consistent with the frequency predicted from the more recent record. For tsunami prone locations where a scaling relationship is determined, the predicted recurrence intervals may be useful for planning by coastal engineers and emergency management agencies.