The singularity is not near: slowing growth of Wikipedia
The singularity is not near: slowing growth of Wikipedia
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DOI：
10.1145/1641309.1641322
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发表时间：
2009-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Suh;G. Convertino;Ed H. Chi;P. Pirolli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Suh;G. Convertino;Ed H. Chi;P. Pirolli
先前对维基百科的研究表明，内容和编辑的增长基本上是指数级的，可以推断当前的趋势到未来。我们表明，最近的编辑活动表明，维基百科的增长已经放缓，甚至可能停滞不前，这表明它可能已经达到了增长的极限。我们衡量编辑和管理员活动的增长、人口变化以及模式，并尽可能将这些结果与过去的结果进行对比。页面增长速度和编辑增长速度都有所下降。随着增长的下降，有迹象表明协调和管理成本增加，新来者被排斥，新编辑受到抵制。我们讨论了维基百科中这些新发展的一些可能的解释，包括分享现有知识的机会减少和社会技术系统本身的官僚压力增加。
Prior research on Wikipedia has characterized the growth in content and editors as being fundamentally exponential in nature, extrapolating current trends into the future. We show that recent editing activity suggests that Wikipedia growth has slowed, and perhaps plateaued, indicating that it may have come against its limits to growth. We measure growth, population shifts, and patterns of editor and administrator activities, contrasting these against past results where possible. Both the rate of page growth and editor growth has declined. As growth has declined, there are indicators of increased coordination and overhead costs, exclusion of newcomers, and resistance to new edits. We discuss some possible explanations for these new developments in Wikipedia including decreased opportunities for sharing existing knowledge and increased bureaucratic stress on the socio-technical system itself.