Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health
Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health
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DOI：
10.1029/2009jd013795
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发表时间：
2010-07-29
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Jacobson, Mark Z.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jacobson, Mark Z.
本研究探讨了短期（类似于15年）控制化石燃料烟尘的效果（FS）（黑碳（BC）、原生有机物（POM）和S（IV））（H2SO 4（aq），HSO 4-，and SO 42-）），固体生物燃料烟尘和气体（BSG）（BC、POM、S（IV）、K+、Na+、Ca 2+、Mg 2+、NH 4+、NO3、Cl和几十种气体，包括CO2和CH 4）和甲烷对全球和北极温度、云量、降水和大气组成的影响。用GATOR-GC 10进行了气候响应模拟，考虑了气溶胶对云和降水的微物理（间接）和辐射影响。该模型处理离散尺寸分辨老化和内部混合的气溶胶烟尘，离散尺寸分辨云/降水从外部和内部混合气溶胶粒子的演变，和烟尘吸收气溶胶，云/降水，雪/海冰。消除FS，FS+BSG（FSBSG）和CH 4单独被发现减少全球表面空气温度的统计显着0.3-0.5 K，0.4-0.7 K和0.2-0.4 K，分别超过15年。由于净全球变暖（0.7-0.8 K）主要是由于化石燃料温室气体（2-2.4 K）造成的总污染物变暖，以及FSBSG（0.4-0.7 K）被非FSBSG气溶胶颗粒（-1.7至-2.3 K）造成的冷却所抵消，因此去除FS和FSBSG可以分别减少13-16%和17- 23%的总变暖。单独减少FS、FSBSG和CH 4可能会使北极圈以上的变暖分别减少1.2 K、1.7 K和0.9 K。FS和BSG都有助于变暖，但FS是每单位质量排放的更强贡献者。然而，BSG可能导致比FS高8倍的死亡率。全球电子折叠寿命排放的BC（从所有化石来源）对内部混合的凝聚是类似的3小时，类似的数据，和所有BC对干加湿的去除是类似的4.7天。约90%的排放的FS BC质量损失的内部混合的凝聚，类似于7%的湿去除，类似于3%的干去除，和剩余的空气传播。在所有排放的和内部混合的BC中，约92%被湿法去除，约8%被干法去除，残留物仍在空气中。20年和100年，FS中BC的单位连续排放地表温度响应（STRE）（与全球变暖潜能值（GWP）相似）分别为4500-7200和2900-4600; BSG中BC的STRE响应分别为2100-4000和1060-2020; CH 4的STRE响应分别为52-92和29-63。因此，FSBSG可能是仅次于CO2的第二大变暖原因。控制FS和BSG可能是减少北极冰损失和全球变暖的一种更快的方法，而不是其他选择，包括控制CH 4或CO2，尽管需要所有控制措施。
This study examines the short-term (similar to 15 year) effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot (FS) (black carbon (BC), primary organic matter (POM), and S(IV) (H2SO4(aq), HSO4-, and SO42-)), solid-biofuel soot and gases (BSG) (BC, POM, S(IV), K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, NO3, Cl and several dozen gases, including CO2 and CH4), and methane on global and Arctic temperatures, cloudiness, precipitation, and atmospheric composition. Climate response simulations were run with GATOR-GCMOM, accounting for both microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. The model treated discrete size-resolved aging and internal mixing of aerosol soot, discrete size-resolved evolution of clouds/precipitation from externally and internally mixed aerosol particles, and soot absorption in aerosols, clouds/precipitation, and snow/sea ice. Eliminating FS, FS+BSG (FSBSG), and CH4 in isolation were found to reduce global surface air temperatures by a statistically significant 0.3-0.5 K, 0.4-0.7 K, and 0.2-0.4 K, respectively, averaged over 15 years. As net global warming (0.7-0.8 K) is due mostly to gross pollutant warming from fossil-fuel greenhouse gases (2-2.4 K), and FSBSG (0.4-0.7 K) offset by cooling due to non-FSBSG aerosol particles (-1.7 to -2.3 K), removing FS and FSBSG may reduce 13-16% and 17-23%, respectively, of gross warming to date. Reducing FS, FSBSG, and CH4 in isolation may reduce warming above the Arctic Circle by up to similar to 1.2 K, similar to 1.7 K, and similar to 0.9 K, respectively. Both FS and BSG contribute to warming, but FS is a stronger contributor per unit mass emission. However, BSG may cause 8 times more mortality than FS. The global e-folding lifetime of emitted BC (from all fossil sources) against internal mixing by coagulation was similar to 3 h, similar to data, and that of all BC against dry plus wet removal was similar to 4.7 days. About 90% of emitted FS BC mass was lost to internal mixing by coagulation, similar to 7% to wet removal, similar to 3% to dry removal, and a residual remaining airborne. Of all emitted plus internally mixed BC, similar to 92% was wet removed and similar to 8% dry removed, with a residual remaining airborne. The 20 and 100 year surface temperature response per unit continuous emissions (STRE) (similar to global warming potentials (GWPs)) of BC in FS were 4500-7200 and 2900-4600, respectively; those of BC in BSG were 2100-4000 and 1060-2020, respectively; and those of CH4 were 52-92 and 29-63, respectively. Thus, FSBSG may be the second leading cause of warming after CO2. Controlling FS and BSG may be a faster method of reducing Arctic ice loss and global warming than other options, including controlling CH4 or CO2, although all controls are needed.