The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China
The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.063
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发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Xin Zhao;O. Doering;W. Tyner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xin Zhao;O. Doering;W. Tyner
与传统内燃机汽车 (ICEV) 相比，电动汽车 (EV) 能源效率高、污染物和温室气体 (GHG) 排放量低。本研究探讨了纯电动汽车 (BEV) 在中国市场的经济竞争力。从消费者、社会和温室气体排放的角度进行效益成本分析，将纯电动汽车与内燃机汽车进行比较。开发生命周期成本模型来评估车辆的生命周期成本。结果显示，在中央政府补贴下，纯电动汽车的生命周期私人成本（LCPC）比同类内燃机汽车高出约1.4倍。除非使用 BEV 每年减少的外部成本达到紧凑型汽车 2500 美元或多功能汽车 3600 美元，否则中央政府对 BEV 的补贴将不具有成本效益和效率。该总成本水平意味着每吨碳成本超过 2100 美元。目前使用 BEV 的生命周期外部成本降低约为 2000-2300 美元，小于政府补贴或 BEV 和 ICEV 之间的 LCPC 差异。进一步预测表明，到 2031 年，纯电动汽车可能在中国市场上不具备经济竞争力。
Electric vehicles (EVs) have high energy efficiency and low pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This study examines the economic competitiveness of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the Chinese market. BEVs are compared with ICEVs using benefit-cost analyses from the perspectives of consumers, society and GHG emissions. A life-cycle cost model is developed to evaluate the lifetime cost of a vehicle. The results show that, with central government subsidies, the BEV life-cycle private cost (LCPC) is about 1.4 times higher than comparable ICEVs. Central government subsidies on BEVs will not be cost effective and efficient unless the annual external cost reduction from using BEV reaches $2500 for a compact vehicle or $3600 for a multi-purpose vehicle. That total cost level would imply a carbon cost of more than $2100 per ton. The current life-cycle external cost reductions from using BEV are around $2000–$2300, which are smaller than government subsidies or LCPC differences between BEV and ICEV. Further projections show that BEVs likely will not be economically competitive in the Chinese market before 2031.