Climate change, land use change, and China's food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective
Climate change, land use change, and China's food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-008-9491-0
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发表时间：
2009-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tao, Fulu;Yokozawa, Masayuki;Zhang, Zhao
中国是世界上人口最多的国家，由于人口增长、水资源短缺、城市化造成的耕地流失、土壤退化和气候变化等挑战，中国的粮食安全长期以来一直令人担忧。本文根据IPCC《排放情景特别报告》A1、A2、B1和B2，基于官方统计数据和未来发展情景，对中国2020年、2050年和2080年的粮食需求和供给进行了综合分析。我们的分析考虑了未来的社会经济、技术和资源发展，以及气候变化的影响。我们提出了一个协变关系的谷物生产力的变化，由于气候变化和谷物收获面积所需的，以满足中国的粮食需求。我们还估计了收获面积变化对满足粮食需求所需的生产力的影响;气候变化导致的生产力变化对满足粮食需求所需的收获面积的影响;以及生产力和土地利用变化对营养不良风险人口的影响。在21世纪，中国可以在不扰乱全球粮食市场的情况下养活自己，但政府是选择自给自足还是增加粮食进口，可能取决于改变的代价，这一点仍是未知数。
Food security in China, the world's most populous country, has long been a concern because of the challenges of population growth, water shortages, and loss of cropland through urbanization, soil degradation, and climate change. Here, we present an integrated analysis of China's food demand and supply under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. Our analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change. We present a covariant relationship between changes in cereal productivity due to climate change and the cereal harvest area required to satisfy China's food demand. We also estimated the effects of changing harvested areas on the productivity required to satisfy the food demand; of productivity changes due to climate change on the harvest area required to satisfy food demand; and of productivity and land use changes on the population at risk of undernutrition. China could be able to feed herself without disturbing the global food market in the twenty-first century, but whether the government will choose self-sufficiency or increased food imports may depend on the cost of change, which remains unknown.