Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance
Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01518.x
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Zinman, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stango, Victor;Zinman, Jonathan
指数增长偏差是一种普遍的趋势，线性化指数函数时，评估他们的直觉。我们发现，指数增长偏差可以解释两个程式化的事实，在家庭财务：倾向于低估利率的其他贷款条款，并倾向于低估未来价值的其他投资条款。从经验上看，偏差很重要：倾向性更强的家庭借得更多，存得更少，倾向于更短的期限，更多地使用和受益于财务建议，条件是拥有丰富的家庭特征。几乎没有证据表明，我们对指数增长偏差的衡量仅仅代表了更广泛的金融复杂性。
Exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively. We show that exponential growth bias can explain two stylized facts in household finance: the tendency to underestimate an interest rate given other loan terms, and the tendency to underestimate a future value given other investment terms. Bias matters empirically: More-biased households borrow more, save less, favor shorter maturities, and use and benefit more from financial advice, conditional on a rich set of household characteristics. There is little evidence that our measure of exponential growth bias merely proxies for broader financial sophistication.