Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data
Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data
复制标题
利用区间删失数据对可修复系统进行动态可靠性评估和预测
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2016.11.011
复制
发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Zhang Chuhua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng Yizhen;Wang Yu;Zi YanYang;Tsui Kwok-Leung;Zhang Chuhua
“测试、分析和修复”过程被广泛应用于提高可修复系统的可靠性。在此过程中，系统的动态可靠性评估受到了极大的关注。由于仪器故障、人员遗漏和检查策略不完善，现场可靠性数据往往会受到间隔审查，这使得动态可靠性评估成为一项艰巨的任务。传统的方法大多将这类数据假设为多个正态分布变量，或者假设缺失机制是随机缺失的，这可能会导致参数估计的较大偏差。提出了一种评估和预测区间截尾可修系统动态可靠性的新方法。首先，基于可靠性增长趋势服从非齐次泊松过程的假设，提出了一种多重填补策略来推导缺失数据的分布。其次，建立了一种将因变量转化为自变量的有序统计量模型，简化了推算过程。模型的未知参数由蒙特卡罗期望最大化(MCEM)算法迭代推断。最后，以输气管道压缩机系统为例进行了仿真和实例研究，验证了该方法的有效性。
The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2005.12.004
发表时间：
2007-02
期刊：
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
K. Majeske
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4939-7131-2_100671
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1243/1748006xjrr168
发表时间：
2008-12
期刊：
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
影响因子：
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作者：
H. Jiang;M. Xie;L. C. Tang
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DOI：
10.1080/17434470410019753
发表时间：
2004-09
期刊：
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Other Motor Neuron Disorders
影响因子：
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作者：
John L.P. Thompson;Gilberto Levy
通讯作者：
John L.P. Thompson;Gilberto Levy
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2011.03.018
发表时间：
2011-10
期刊：
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
影响因子：
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作者：
S. Taghipour;D. Banjevic
通讯作者：
S. Taghipour;D. Banjevic