Modern global climate change
Modern global climate change
复制标题
现代全球气候变化
DOI：
10.1126/science.1090228
复制
发表时间：
2003-12-05
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Trenberth, KE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Karl, TR;Trenberth, KE
现代气候变化主要受人类影响，其影响之大已超出自然变化的范围。全球气候变化的主要来源是人类引起的大气成分变化。这些扰动主要来自与能源使用有关的排放，但在地方和区域范围内，城市化和土地使用变化也很重要。虽然在监测和了解气候变化方面取得了进展，但在精确规划、适应和减轻气候变化影响方面仍然存在许多科学、技术和体制障碍。关于可以预期的变化率仍有相当大的不确定性，但显然这些变化将越来越多地以重要和切实的方式表现出来，例如极端温度和降水量的变化，季节性和常年性冰雪范围的减少，以及海平面的上升。人类活动造成的气候变化现在可能会持续许多世纪。我们正在冒险进入气候的未知领域，其相关影响可能具有相当大的破坏性。
Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.