Bred Vector and ENSO Predictability in a Hybrid Coupled Model during the Period 1881–2000
Bred Vector and ENSO Predictability in a Hybrid Coupled Model during the Period 1881–2000
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3491.1
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Youmin Tang;Ziwang Deng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Youmin Tang;Ziwang Deng
摘要利用1881 - 2000年120年的海表温度资料，对一个混合耦合的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）模式进行了育种分析。与此同时，对同期进行了ENSO追溯预测。对于一个给定的初始状态，15繁殖矢量（BV）的SST和上层海洋热含量（HC）的推导。结果表明，15个BV的平均结构对初始状态不敏感，与季节和ENSO位相无关。的平均结构的BV共享的许多功能已经看到在领导奇异向量和ENSO BV的其他模式的最终模式。然而，个体BV模式在不同情况下有很大差异。BV率（BV的平均累积增长率）具有季节性变化，最大值出现在模式运行的春季和夏季。它对ENSO信号的强度也很敏感（即，圣...
Abstract In this study, a breeding analysis was conducted for a hybrid coupled El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model that assimilated a historic dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) for the 120 yr between 1881 and 2000. Meanwhile, retrospective ENSO forecasts were performed for the same period. For a given initial state, 15 bred vectors (BVs) of both SST and upper-ocean heat content (HC) were derived. It was found that the average structure of the 15 BVs was insensitive to the initial states and independent of season and ENSO phase. The average structure of the BVs shared many features already seen in both the final patterns of leading singular vectors and the ENSO BVs of other models. However, individual BV patterns were quite different from case to case. The BV rate (the average cumulative growth rate of BVs) varied seasonally, and the maximum value appeared at the time when the model ran through the boreal spring and summer. It was also sensitive to the strength of the ENSO signal (i.e., the st...