Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction
Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2964
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Lontzek, Thomas S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, Yongyang;Lenton, Timothy M.;Lontzek, Thomas S.
有证据表明，气候系统的几个要素可能会因全球变暖而陷入不同的状态，造成不可逆转的经济损失。为了解决其政策影响，我们将五个相互作用的气候临界点纳入随机动态综合评估模型，根据现有专家启发的结果校准其可能性和相互作用。在这里，我们表明，结合现实的假设政策制定者的偏好在不确定性下，与多个未来相互作用的气候临界点的前景，增加了近八倍的碳在模型中的当前社会成本从15美元每吨CO（2）到116美元每吨CO（2）。此外，超过某些临界点会增加其他临界点发生的可能性，以至于突然增加碳的社会成本。相应的最优政策包括立即采取大规模措施控制二氧化碳排放，到本世纪中叶停止排放，从而使气候稳定在
Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers' preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of carbon in the model nearly eightfold from US$15 per tCO(2) to US$116 per tCO(2). Furthermore, passing some tipping points increases the likelihood of other tipping points occurring to such an extent that it abruptly increases the social cost of carbon. The corresponding optimal policy involves an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, which are stopped by mid-century, leading to climate stabilization at