The human impact of tropical cyclones: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review.
The human impact of tropical cyclones: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review.
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DOI：
10.1371/currents.dis.2664354a5571512063ed29d25ffbce74
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发表时间：
2013-04-16
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kirsch, Thomas D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doocy, Shannon;Dick, Anna;Kirsch, Thomas D
背景。在过去的二十五年里，气旋对东南亚、西太平洋和美洲的人口造成了重大影响。由于人口增长、城市化、沿海定居点增加和全球变暖等因素，未来对气旋的脆弱性将会增加。本次审查的目的是描述气旋对人类造成的死亡、伤害和流离失所的影响，并尽可能确定与这些结果相关的风险因素。这是关于自然灾害对人类影响的五篇评论之一。方法。关于气旋影响的数据使用两种方法进行汇编：来自多个数据库的 1980 年至 2009 年气旋事件的历史回顾，以及对 2012 年 10 月结束的出版物的系统文献回顾。分析包括使用 Stata 11.0 对气旋特征与死亡率之间的关联进行描述性统计和双变量检验。发现。 1980年至2009年间，气旋造成412,644人死亡、290,654人受伤、4.661亿人受灾，死伤负担主要集中在东南亚和西太平洋地区的欠发达国家。不一致的报告表明这一数字被低估，特别是就受伤和受影响人群而言。与气旋相关的死亡的主要原因是溺水；在发达国家，男性与死亡风险增加有关，而在欠发达国家，女性的死亡率较高。结论。对防备和预警的额外关注，特别是在亚洲，可以减轻未来气旋的影响。
Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones.