Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.
Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.
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在气候变化下评估与臭氧相关的健康影响。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.7163
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发表时间：
2004-11
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Kinney, Patrick L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Knowlton, Kim;Rosenthal, Joyce E;Hogrefe, Christian;Lynn, Barry;Gaffin, Stuart;Goldberg, Richard;Rosenzweig, Cynthia;Civerolo, Kevin;Ku, Jia-Yeong;Kinney, Patrick L
气候变化可能会增加美国未来夏季臭氧事件的频率和强度。然而，直到最近才有模型可以评估气候变化对O3浓度的影响以及与适应性规划相关的区域和地方尺度的健康影响。我们开发并应用了一个综合建模框架，以评估未来几十年在气候变化下O3对健康的潜在影响。美国国家航空航天局-戈达德空间研究所4° × 5°分辨率的全球气候模式与宾夕法尼亚州立大学/国家大气研究中心中尺度模式5和社区多尺度空气质量大气化学模式以36公里水平网格分辨率相连接，以模拟21世纪50年代31- 50年中5个夏季的每小时区域气象和O3。县纽约大都市区。我们评估了O3相关的变化对夏季死亡率的影响，仅由气候变化引起，气候变化叠加在O3前体排放和人口增长的变化上。仅考虑气候变化，31个县与O3相关的急性死亡率中位数增加了4.5%。假设O3前体排放随着气候变化沿着增加，也得到了类似的结果。当人口增长因素被纳入预测时，绝对影响大幅增加。预测O3死亡率增长百分比最高的县从城市核心区蔓延到人口密度较低的郊区县。该模型框架为评估气候变化的健康风险提供了一个潜在的有用的新工具。
Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.