Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh
Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343309102659
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Kis-Katos, Krisztina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Czaika, Mathias;Kis-Katos, Krisztina
本文的目的是确定基于各种推拉因素在村庄一级的流离失所行为的决定因素。这项研究集中在三年的国内冲突（1999-2002年）在亚齐，印度尼西亚的村庄人口的变化。实证分析是基于一个独特的数据集，从两轮人口普查的印度尼西亚村庄潜力普查（PODES）。它使用了大约5,200个亚齐村庄的数据，并将村庄一级的人口变化与冲突变量、地理模式和移民的传统社会经济决定因素联系起来。通过分位数回归，也可以区分移民的推动（流出）因素和拉动（流入）决定因素。作者认为，以下因素是这一时期亚齐移民模式的主要决定因素。首先，冲突冲突导致受严重影响地区的村庄之间的人口大规模重新安排，以及大量村庄从地理上偏远的亚齐中部地区向受冲突影响较小的沿海工业区迁移。除了冲突因素外，在冲突期间还发生了由社会经济因素驱动的（持续的）农村向城市移徙过程。第二，也有证据表明，安全方面的考虑，例如在村庄或居民区派驻警察，不是减少移民就是引起移民。第三，虽然爪哇族的存在不是冲突发生的主要原因，但他们受到反叛运动的恐吓，导致大量人口外流，主要是从亚齐中部受冲突影响的村庄外流。这些结果表明，除了冲突引起的对暴力的恐惧之外，亚齐的人口流动也是传统移民决定因素的结果。
The purpose of this article is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique dataset from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5,200 Acehnese villages and relates village-level population change to conflict variables, geographic patterns, and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. The authors identify the following factors as the main determinants of the Aceh migration pattern in this period. First, conflict clashes induced large rearrangements of the population between villages in highly affected districts, as well as strong village emigration from the geographically remote regions in Central Aceh towards the less conflict-affected coastal industrial areas. Besides conflict factors, an (ongoing) rural-urban migration process, driven by socio-economic factors, has taken place during the conflict period. Second, there is also evidence that security considerations, such as the presence of police in a village or neighborhood, were either emigration-reducing or immigration-inducing. Third, although the presence of ethnic Javanese has not been a primary cause of conflict incidence, their intimidation by the rebel movement has led to a significant outflow, primarily from conflict-affected villages in Central Aceh. These results reveal that, beside a conflict-induced fear of violence, population movements in Aceh have also been an outcome of traditional migration determinants.