Association between climate variables and global transmission oF SARS-CoV-2
Association between climate variables and global transmission oF SARS-CoV-2
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138997
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发表时间：
2020-08-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Melo, Andre de Souza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sobral, Marcos Felipe Falcao;Duarte, Gisleia Benini;Melo, Andre de Souza
在这项研究中，我们的目的是分析传播和死亡的SARS-CoV-2和气象变量，如平均温度，最低温度，最高温度和降水之间的关系。考虑了两个结局指标，第一个旨在研究SARS-CoV-2感染，第二个旨在研究COVID-19死亡率。每日数据以及2019年12月1日至2020年3月28日期间获得的SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19死亡率数据均来自世界各地的气象站。该国的人口密度和接触该疾病的时间被用作控制变量。最后，添加了一个月虚拟变量。使用面板数据模型分析了各国的每日数据。日平均气温每升高1华氏度，病例数就会减少约6.4例/天。每个国家的平均气温与SARS-CoV-2感染病例数呈负相关。即使纳入了额外的变量和控制（最高温度，平均温度，最低温度和降水量）和固定的国家效应，这种关联仍然很强。降水量与SARS-CoV-2传播呈正相关。降雨量较高的国家显示疾病传播增加。平均每英寸/天，增加56.01例/天。COVID-19死亡率与温度无显著相关性。(c)2020 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
In this study, we aimed at analyzing the associations between transmission of and deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 and meteorological variables, such as average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation. Two outcome measures were considered, with the first aiming to study SARS-CoV-2 infections and the second aiming to study COVID-19 mortality. Daily data as well as data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 mortality obtained between December 1, 2019 and March 28, 2020 were collected from weather stations around the world. The country's population density and time of exposure to the disease were used as control variables. Finally, a month dummy variable was added. Daily data by country were analyzed using the panel data model. An increase in the average daily temperature by one degree Fahrenheit reduced the number of cases by approximately 6.4 cases/day. There was a negative correlation between the average temperature per country and the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections. This association remained strong even with the incorporation of additional variables and controls (maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and fixed country effects. There was a positive correlation between precipitation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Countries with higher rainfall measurements showed an increase in disease transmission. For each average inch/day, there was an increase of 56.01 cases/day. COVID-19 mortality showed no significant association with temperature. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.