Mulched drip irrigation cotton yield potential estimation based on large-scale water-nitrogen coupling model in Xinjiang, China with limits of water resources
Mulched drip irrigation cotton yield potential estimation based on large-scale water-nitrogen coupling model in Xinjiang, China with limits of water resources
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水资源有限的新疆地区基于大尺度水氮耦合模型的覆盖滴灌棉花产量潜力估算
DOI：
10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.05.013
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhao Aiqin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhao Aiqin
在我国干旱的新疆棉花主产区，灌溉是农业生产的重要措施，研究成果丰富。在综合分析现有田间试验数据的基础上，建立大尺度水氮耦合模型，估算新疆膜下滴灌棉花的产量潜力。通过文献检索，共收集到1998 - 2016年有关新疆的数据集172个。其中包括19个已知的棉花品种，其中新露是主要品种。综合考虑资料获取和气候条件，将新疆分为北方和南疆。每个模型都是根据不同棉花品种的数据随机分类建立的水氮耦合模型。模型验证结果表明，该模型在新疆北方地区的决定系数（R2）为0.57，标准化均方根误差为11%，一致性指数为0.85;在新疆南疆地区的决定系数（R2）为0.84，标准化均方根误差为8.3%，一致性指数为0.95。根据该模型，南疆和北方的最佳灌溉量分别为604和552 mm，南疆和北方的最佳施氮量分别为325和354 kg/hm 2。根据新疆2014-2016年和未来规划（2020年），2020年可利用灌溉量为494 mm。假设氮肥最优供应，基于所建立的模型，在水源限制条件下，2020年北方和南疆的产量潜力分别为5 900和6 695 kg/hm 2。2020年新疆皮棉总产量应在5.2×106 t左右。2014年新疆实际皮棉产量约3.7×106 t，为水资源限制下皮棉产量潜力的71%左右。研究结果可为新疆膜下滴灌技术的推广应用和农业水资源规划提供参考。
In arid Xinjiang of China, a main cotton producing area, irrigation is an important measure of agricultural production, and researches yield rich experimental data. This study aimed to establish a large-scale water-nitrogen coupling model based on comprehensive analysis of existing field experimental data to estimate mulched drip irrigation cotton yield potential in Xinjiang. A total of 172 datasets on Xinjiang from the year of 1998 to 2016 were collected through literature retrieval. They included 19 known cotton varieties with Xinlu as a main variety. Considering data acquisition and climatic conditions, Xinjiang was divided into northern and southern Xinjiang. In each, a water-nitrogen coupling model was established based on random classification of data by different cotton varieties. The model validation showed the model was reliable with determination coefficient (R2) of 0.57, normalized root mean square of error of 11%, and concordance index of 0.85 in the northern region, and R2 of 0.84, normalized root mean square of error of 8.3%, and concordance index of 0.95 in the southern Xinjiang, respectively. Based on the model, the optimal irrigation was 604 and 552 mm in the southern and northern Xinjiang, respectively, and the optimal fertilizer-N application rate was 325 and 354 kg/hm2 in the southern and northern Xinjiang, respectively. Available irrigation amount was 494 mm in 2020 according to Xinjiang 2014—2016 and future planning (2020). Assuming fertilizer-N supply was optimally supplied, based on the established model, the yield potential of the northern and southern Xinjiang was 5 900 and 6 695 kg/hm2 in 2020 under the limits of water sources, respectively. The total lint yield should be about 5.2×106 t in 2020 in Xinjiang. The actual lint yield in 2014 in Xinjiang was about 3.7×106 t, about 71% of the potential under the limits of water resources. The study can provide valuable information for application of mulched drip irrigation and agricultural water resources planning in Xinjiang.