An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being
An attainable global vision for conservation and human well-being
复制标题
可实现的保护和人类福祉的全球愿景
DOI：
10.1002/fee.1965
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
10.3
通讯作者：
Brian McPeek
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Tallis;P. Hawthorne;S. Polasky;J. Reid;M. Beck;K. Brauman;J. Bielicki;Seth Binder;M. Burgess;Emily S. Cassidy;A. Clark;J. Fargione;E. Game;J. Gerber;F. Isbell;J. Kiesecker;R. McDonald;M. Metian;Jennifer L. Molnar;Nathan D Mueller;C. O’Connell;D. Ovando;M. Troell;T. Boucher;Brian McPeek
一个充满希望的未来愿景是一个人与自然共同繁荣的世界，但几乎没有证据支持这种愿景的可行性。我们使用了一种全球性的、空间上明确的系统建模方法来探索满足2050年人口增长和经济增长需求的可能性，同时推进多个保护目标。我们的结果表明，如果世界改变粮食和能源的生产方式和地点，而不是“一切照旧”的做法，这可能有助于满足粮食（54%）和能源（56%）需求的预计增长，同时实现栖息地保护（在全球大多数生物群落中，>50%的自然栖息地仍然没有改变;每个国家每个生态区保护面积的17%），减少大气温室气体排放符合巴黎气候协定（到2100年升温≤1.6°C），结束过度捕捞，减少水资源压力和颗粒空气污染。通过现有的技术和消费模式，实现人类和自然的这一充满希望的愿景是可以实现的。然而，成功需要生产方式的重大转变以及克服重大经济、社会和政治挑战的能力。
A hopeful vision of the future is a world in which both people and nature thrive, but there is little evidence to support the feasibility of such a vision. We used a global, spatially explicit, systems modeling approach to explore the possibility of meeting the demands of increased populations and economic growth in 2050 while simultaneously advancing multiple conservation goals. Our results demonstrate that if, instead of “business as usual” practices, the world changes how and where food and energy are produced, this could help to meet projected increases in food (54%) and energy (56%) demand while achieving habitat protection (>50% of natural habitat remains unconverted in most biomes globally; 17% area of each ecoregion protected in each country), reducing atmospheric greenhouse-gas emissions consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (≤1.6°C warming by 2100), ending overfishing, and reducing water stress and particulate air pollution. Achieving this hopeful vision for people and nature is attainable with existing technology and consumption patterns. However, success will require major shifts in production methods and an ability to overcome substantial economic, social, and political challenges.