Matching Food with Mouths: A Statistical Explanation to the Abnormal Decline of Per Capita Food Consumption in Rural China
Matching Food with Mouths: A Statistical Explanation to the Abnormal Decline of Per Capita Food Consumption in Rural China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.06.009
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发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Xiaohua Yu;D. Abler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaohua Yu;D. Abler
这项研究为2000年后中国农村食品消费量的明显下降提供了另一种解释。我们发现，这主要归因于中国农村住户调查和人均食物消费量计算的重大测量误差。在住户调查中，住户在某一时期的总消费量往往得到很好的记录，而人均消费量是用总消费量除以住户人数得出的。这种人均粮食消费的计算容易受到粮食与人口不匹配的影响。总消费量可能会受到主要由离家在外的食物（FAFH）引起的测量误差的影响。此外，调查中记录的家庭规模不一定与消费调查中记录的食品的嘴数（消费家庭规模）相同。我们的研究结果表明，中国农村的人均食品消费目前被低估了约30%。我们的研究结果还表明，食品消费的收入弹性大于根据农村家庭调查数据测量的弹性。在计算人均消费时避免统计错误的一个直接政策影响是，在住户调查中正确记录与总消费相对应的消费家庭规模。
This study provides an alternative explanation for the unusual apparent decline in food consumption in rural China after 2000. We find that it is mainly attributable to significant measurement errors in the Chinese Rural Household Survey and the calculation of per capita food consumption. In a household survey, total consumption for a household in a certain period is often well recorded, and per capita consumption is obtained by dividing total consumption by household size. Such a calculation of per capita food consumption is vulnerable to a mismatch between food and mouths. Total consumption may be subject to measurement errors caused primarily by food away from home (FAFH). Also, the household size recorded in the survey is not necessarily the same as the number of mouths (consumption household size), who consume the food recorded in the survey. Our results indicate that per capita food consumption in rural China is currently being underestimated by about 30%. Our results also indicate that income elasticities of food consumption are greater than measured elasticities based on the Rural Household Survey data. A direct policy implication for avoiding statistical errors in calculating per capita consumption would be correctly recording the consumption household size corresponding to total consumption in household surveys.