Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble
Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1791
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Wang, Xiaolan L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hemer, Mark A.;Fan, Yalin;Wang, Xiaolan L.
未来风浪气候的变化对沿海、近海和近海工业和生态系统的运作和设计具有广泛的影响，并可能进一步加剧沿海地区对预计海平面上升的预期脆弱性(1，2)。然而，在预测未来气候变化的全球评估中，风浪几乎没有受到关注。我们介绍了第一个社区衍生的多模式组合的波浪-气候预测的结果。我们发现，全球海洋面积的25.8%以上的年平均有效波高(H-S)存在一致的预计下降。北方冬季(1-3月，平均占全球海洋面积的38.5%)的预计减少面积比南半球冬季(7-9月，平均；8.4%)更大。预计H-S的年平均增长率超过全球海洋的7.1%，主要在南大洋，在南半球冬季(7-9月；8.8%)增幅更大。南大洋海浪活动的增加影响了全球海洋的更大比例，因为海浪向北传播到其他洋盆，观测到的年平均海浪周期(T-M)增加超过全球海洋的30.2%，以及与之相关的年平均海浪方向(theta(M))的旋转。多模式组合太过有限，无法系统地对与波浪气候预测有关的总不确定性进行抽样。然而，与研究方法有关的波浪-气候预测的变化主导了其他不确定性来源(例如，气候情景和模型的不确定性)。
Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for the operation and design of coastal, near-and off-shore industries and ecosystems, and may further exacerbate the anticipated vulnerabilities of coastal regions to projected sea-level rise(1,2). However, wind waves have received little attention in global assessments of projected future climate change. We present results from the first community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave-climate projections. We find an agreed projected decrease in annual mean significant wave height (H-S) over 25.8% of the global ocean area. The area of projected decrease is greater during boreal winter (January-March, mean; 38.5% of the global ocean area) than austral winter (July-September, mean; 8.4%). A projected increase in annual mean H-S is found over 7.1% of the global ocean, predominantly in the Southern Ocean, which is greater during austral winter (July-September; 8.8%). Increased Southern Ocean wave activity influences a larger proportion of the global ocean as swell propagates northwards into the other ocean basins, observed as an increase in annual mean wave period (T-M) over 30.2% of the global ocean and associated rotation of the annual mean wave direction (theta(M)). The multi-model ensemble is too limited to systematically sample total uncertainty associated with wave-climate projections. However, variance of wave-climate projections associated with study methodology dominates other sources of uncertainty (for example, climate scenario and model uncertainties).