Long-run abstinence after narcotics abuse: What are the odds?
Long-run abstinence after narcotics abuse: What are the odds?
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DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.44.11.1478
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发表时间：
1998-11-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Powers, KI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dekimpe, MG;Van de Gucht, LM;Powers, KI
我们考虑了麻醉品使用者在美沙酮治疗后保持戒断的长期可能性。开发了一种灵活的分裂风险规范，允许最终复发的长期概率和复发的短期时间存在个体水平差异。该模型适用于涉及 800 多名成瘾者的个人药物滥用和治疗历史的综合数据集。我们的研究结果表明（1）美沙酮计划的短期成功不会自动转化为长期戒断，这表明需要后期护理，（2）防止青少年或年轻人开始使用美沙酮的价值，以及（3）从首次每日使用的年龄和种族方面识别高风险群体的可能性。
We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.